Sample Publishing Lesson: Crunching the Numbers: How It’s Possible to Sell Every Copy of Your Self-Published Book and Still Lose Money—And How to Avoid That Outcome

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I recently met a self-published author who seemed at first glance to be doing everything right and whose book is on track to sell 10,000 copies. The only problem is, by the time all those books are in the hands of buyers this author will have lost over US$32,200 and will have no idea how it happened. I’ve changed identifying details of the author and book for purposes of this lesson, but the pitfalls to which this author fell victim are still very clear.

The author, we’ll call him Jim, had an idea for a novel and decided to self-publish. Jim’s job gives him lots of exposure to consumers from all over the world, so he set up an online shopping cart early on and began pre-selling before the novel was even finished. He figured a typical book in a store sells for about US$20, so that’s where he set his retail price. Jim did a lot of community outreach as well as personal outreach, and by the time he was finished writing the book he’d pre-sold 5,000 copies. At US$20 a pop, that’s US$100K! Even after subtracting the online payment processor’s service fee of 3% ($3,000), he still stands to net $97K. Sounds terrific, right? There was only one problem: he’d not yet paid anything to have the book produced, printed or shipped to buyers.

Jim settled on a subsidy publisher I’ll refer to as Publisher X. Jim decided he wanted a top-quality book, so he opted for a hardcover publishing package. Publisher X charges a minimum of US$1000 for project setup on a hardcover book, plus US$12-25 per author copy (depending on quantity ordered). Jim wanted to get the maximum discount and already had 5,000 copies pre-sold, so he ordered 10,000 copies of his book at the author price of $12 each. Jim opted to pay an additional US$1000 for Publisher X’s add-on editing and interior layout/design service, and paid US$8500 for professional photography and design services for production of a wraparound, full-color dust jacket for the books. Jim’s total expense up to this point is US$130,500.

You’re probably thinking (as I’m sure Jim is) that when Jim sells those additional 5,000 copies, he’ll earn another US$97K and have US$66,500 in profit. Not so fast: Jim still has to pay to have those hardcovers shipped to him, then he must turn around and pay for packaging materials and shipping expense on every copy sold to get his books to his buyers. If Jim didn’t charge his presale customers sales tax on their orders, he must pay that government tax out of his own pocket too, but let’s cut Jim a break and assume he did charge for sales tax.

Hardcover books are heavy. If we assume Jim will pay about fifty cents per book—which is a lowball estimate, but let’s just go with it—to have them shipped from the publisher to his home, that’s US$5,000.

In order to ship the books to his buyers, he must package them in padded envelopes and pay for postage on each copy, and many of those copies are going overseas. If we assume Jim gets a bulk deal on padded envelopes so that they cost him just ten cents each, that’s still US$1000. But that’s nothing, it’s the shipping expense that’s going to kill any chance his book had of being profitable. Even if Jim uses book rate mail for shipping instead of first-class, he’ll pay US$6 per copy on average to ship the books domestically, and US$15 per copy on average for international shipping. Let’s assume only 1/3 of his buyers are international (3,300 of 10,000). The shipping and packaging expenses still work out to US$49,500 for international shipping and US$40,200 for the remaining 6,700 domestic shipments.

You should now be able to see why Jim’s book cannot possibly turn a profit. If he’s paying the publisher US$12 per copy to buy each book, plus fifty cents per book to have them shipped to his home, plus ten cents per book for padded envelopes and US$6-$15 to ship each book to his buyers, you don’t even have to take the US$10,500 he paid Publisher X into account to see he’s either just breaking even, or losing money, on every copy sold.

Let’s review all of Jim’s income and expenses on this book project.

Item Income/Expense
10,000 books sold at US$20 each, minus 3% proc. fee +  $194,000
Fees paid to Publisher X for setup, + add-on services -     $10,500
10,000 copies of book @ $12 per copy -   $120,000
Shipping from Publisher X -       $5,000
Padded envelopes -       $1,000
Shipping to international buyers, 3300 copies @ $15 ea. -     $49,500
Shipping to domestic buyers, 7500 copies @ $6 ea -     $40,200
Total -     $32,200

Remember, this is assuming he sells all 10,000 copies of his book; he’ll be out much more than $32,200 if he sells less. Had Jim done some number crunching ahead of time, he could have made better choices, spent his money more wisely and turned a profit.

To determine what it will really cost you to self-publish, and how much you stand to earn on a book, you must calculate all of the following—ideally, before you publish:

1. Upfront costs

2. Author copy costs

3. Net “Royalty” per copy sold

4. Break-even point

Upfront costs include any fees you must pay your publisher or printing service provider for any or all of the following:

1. Registration/membership – some service providers require their author clients to sign up for website or service membership for a fee

2. Project set-up fees & publishing package fees – some outfits may charge a flat project set-up fee to everyone, then allow the author to select from a range of publishing packages at different prices; others may simply charge a publishing package fee. If the two fees are separate in your case, don’t forget to include them both in your upfront expenses

3. Distribution package fees – fees charged for getting your book listed on Amazon, distributed to brick-and-mortar stores, listed in book catalogs, made available to book clubs, etc.

4. Add-on service fees – optional services made available to you for a separate fee in addition to your selected publishing package; common add-ons are ebook publication services, dust jacket design and printing for hardcover books, advertising/promotion packages, etc.

5. Fees paid to professional service providers – if you’re paying out of pocket to hire an editor, cover designer, layout artist, photographer, or any other professional service provider, that expense is also part of your book’s upfront costs

6. Fees and expenses related to promotional activities

Author copy costs include the cost of the books themselves, plus the shipping expense to have them sent from the publisher to you. If you’re working with a Print On Demand service provider and don’t intend to store, hand-sell and ship copies of your book, author copies will be limited to copies you purchase for family, friends, to send to reviewers, and for promotional giveaway purposes. Otherwise, you’ll need to figure the cost of your author copies since that cost will figure into your royalty calculations for hand-sold copies.

Net “royalty” per copy sold is the retail price minus the production cost per copy (this is generally the same as the price you pay for author copies; in Jim’s case, it was $12 per book), minus any of the following expenses that are applicable to your book: bookseller fee (for copies sold through book retailers like Amazon, Borders, etc.), packaging material cost for shipping books yourself, postage cost for shipping books yourself.

The break-even point is the number of books you must sell (which translates to the quantity of “royalties” you must earn) to recoup all of your upfront cost investment plus whatever you’ve spent on author copies you’ve purchased to give to book reviewers, or for other giveaway purposes. In Jim’s case, there is no break-even point because he will never recoup all of his upfront investment.

No matter which author or print services provider you choose to work with, there are two major categories of expense you must take into account just for getting the book produced: upfront costs and per-copy costs.

You need to know your upfront costs in order to figure out how many books you must sell to recoup your upfront investment (e.g., how many books you must sell to break even and at what point you’ll really begin to earn a profit on each copy sold), and you need to know your per-copy cost in order to figure out how to set a retail price that will get you the royalty (profit per copy sold) you want.

Calculating Upfront Costs

Upfront costs are one-time fees you must pay regardless of how many copies of your book you order, and upfront costs are separate from monies paid for printed copies of your book.

If your service provider charges a membership fee, a project setup fee, or an optional, one-time upgrade fee in exchange for reducing your per-copy costs, any and all of those fees are upfront costs. Likewise, any fees you pay for services or service packages are upfront costs. Upfront costs will play into your break-even calculation, but not your per-copy cost calculations.

Calculating Per-Copy Costs

Per-copy costs are a critical calculation, because the amount you must pay to get your books produced sets the bar for the minimum retail price you must charge. For example, if you’re a shopkeeper and you buy 100 candy bars at a price of 25 cents per bar, you know you must charge a minimum of 26 cents per bar to make any money on candy bar sales. You also know that every cent above 26 you charge is more profit for you. The same idea applies to books: whether you store the books in your garage and hand-sell them, or utilize a POD service that will sell and deliver the books for you, there’s the price you must pay to get the books produced and then there’s the price you will charge when selling the book.

When Your Provider Requires A Minimum Book Order Up Front

Some service providers will require you to buy a minimum number of copies of your book up front, and will charge a shipping fee to send the books to you. In that case, your cost per copy is:

Total amount you paid for books + shipping fee divided by the number of books

In the example given for Jim, he paid:

($120,000 for books + $5,000 shipping fee)/10,000 books = $12.50 per book

To figure how much Jim is out of pocket per copy he hand-sold, he must add packaging material and postage costs to the production cost figure:

US Buyers: $12.50 + .10 packaging cost + $6 average postage = $18.60

Intern’l Buyers: $12.50 + .10 packaging cost + $15 average postage = $27.60

If Jim had done these calculations before publishing his book, he would’ve seen that the $20 per copy he charged his buyers isn’t enough to cover the per-copy production costs on his hardcover book. He’d see that he will lose $7.60 on every copy sold to an international buyer, and he only stands to earn $1.40 on each copy sold domestically. He’d know he must sell 5.4 copies domestically to earn enough profit to cover the loss on every copy sold internationally (5.4 x 1.40 = $7.56). And these are just the ugly figures for hand-selling his book; if Jim elects to sell any of his remaining 5,000 copies through a bookseller, his financial picture gets even worse, as you’ll see in the Break Even Calculations section below.

Note that Lesson #5 in the Publishing curriculum goes into greater detail on how to choose an author services provider, and why it’s rarely a good idea to pay for a complete publishing package or go with a subsidy publisher—both of which mistakes were made by Jim.

When Working With A Print On Demand (POD) Provider Which Doesn’t Require A Minimum Book Order Up Front

If you’re working with a print or author services provider that offers printing/POD services on a standalone basis (as opposed to selling you a complete package of pre-publishing, publishing and promotion services), and does not require you to order a minimum quantity of books up front, the provider will calculate how much to charge per book for their production costs based on a per-copy flat fee (for cover printing and binding) plus a per-page printing fee. Note that for purposes of these calculations, “per page” means “per page side” – in other words, the front side of a page counts as one page, and the back side of a page counts as a second page. There may also be a project setup fee, a site membership fee, or an optional upgrade fee you can pay to reduce your per-copy and per-page fees, but if so, those are all part of your upfront costs. Per-copy cost calculations are as follows:

Per-Copy Fee + Per-Page Fee = Production Cost For One Copy of Your Book

Total Production Cost + Shipping Fee = Cost Per Author Copy Purchased

Author Copy Cost + Packaging Materials Cost + Postage = Cost Per Copy Hand-Sold

Comparison Shopping for the Best Per-Copy Production Cost

When deciding amongst print/POD service providers, it’s important to do some what-if calculations based on your specific book before you commit to a provider. In the table which follows, I’ve provided sample pricing from three different service providers for a 300 page book that will have a full-color, perfect-bound trade paperback binding and a black and white interior. As you look at the table, consider what a mistake it would be to choose your provider based only on the basis of whether or not the provider charges a setup fee, or what the provider charges per copy or per page alone. It isn’t until you take all three factors into account that you get an accurate picture of which provider is offering the best deal.

 

Provider A

Provider B

Provider C

1. Set-up fee $0 $0 $50.00
2. Per-copy fee $.85 $1.25 $.45
3. Per-page fee $.035 $.030 $.02
4. Shipping, per book $5.60 $7.00 $5.50
Prod cost per copy =
#2 + (300 x #3)
$.85 + 10.50
= $11.35
$1.25 + 9.00
= $10.25
$.45 + 6.00
= $6.45
Cost per author copy =
#2 + (300 x #3) + #4
$.85 + 10.50 + 5.60
= $16.95
$1.25 + 9.00 + 7.00
= $17.25
$.45 + 6.00 + 5.50
= $11.95

At first glance, you might reject Provider C out of hand simply because Provider C charges an upfront fee whereas Providers A and B do not. However, as you go down the table, you can see that in exchange for your setup fee, Provider C will give you much lower per-copy production costs. The lower your per-copy production costs, the more you stand to earn per copy sold, as you will see in the next section.

Yet another consideration is author copies. If you’re already planning to buy 20 author copies for family, friends, reviewers and promotional giveaways, Provider C’s upfront fee will be more than covered by your savings in author copies alone because the next-closest provider would’ve charged you $5 more per author copy. $5 x 20 = $100.

Calculating Net “Royalty” Per Copy Sold

I place “royalty” in quotation marks because for a self-published author, what you actually earn is net profit. Royalties are what is paid to a mainstream-published author after every other party in the publisher/bookseller chain has taken his cut (e.g., publisher, agent, attorney, bookseller), and only after the publisher has held back enough in profits to pay back whatever it paid the author as an advance, and only after bookseller returns have been subtracted. However, since “royalty” has become the typical term for book profits in common usage, I’ll continue using it here.

Your net royalty per copy sold depends on three factors: your per-copy production cost, whether the book was hand-sold or sold through a retail outlet, and the retail price at which the book was sold. You already know how to figure your per-copy production cost; now let’s look at the other two factors.

If you’re hand-selling your books, the additional costs you must take into account are the cost to have copies shipped from the service provider to you, the cost of any packaging materials you must use to ship books out to your buyers, and the postage expense for shipping the books to buyers. You must also pay sales tax on every copy sold, but so long as you charge the customers the correct rate for your geographic region at the time of sale, that expense is covered by your customers.

If your books are sold through a retail outlet (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Borders, CostCo, Target, etc.), the seller will generally keep a 40% cut of the retail price on every sale as a reseller fee.

The fee can be substantially lower when working with an ebook publishing service provider, such as just 15-25%, but since the retail price of an ebook is usually much lower than that for a print book, the lower reseller fee doesn’t necessarily translate into bigger royalties per copy sold, as compared to print copies sold.

To get some concrete figures to work with, let’s look at Jim’s book once again.

Royalty Calculations For Hand-Sold Books

We already know what Jim’s profit or loss per copy sold will be for books he hand-sells at $20 per copy. Had he done his production cost calculations before setting his retail price, he might have decided to charge $28 for his book (which isn’t an atypical retail price for a hardcover book of 250-300pp) and ensured he would earn $8.56 per copy sold domestically, and lose just 44 cents per copy sold internationally:

Online payment processing fee is 3%; 3% of $28 = .84

Royalties on US Sales: $28 – ($12.50 + .10 packaging cost + $6 avg postage + .84 online payment processor fee) = $8.56

Royalties on Intern’l Sales: $28 – ($12.50 + .10 packaging cost + $15 average postage + .84 online payment processor fee) = -$.44  (44 cent loss per copy sold)

Even so, upon seeing these figures Jim might’ve elected to sell only domestically, since his royalty on domestic sales is a whopping 30.57% and he’d still be taking a loss on every copy sold internationally. Considering that mainstream-published authors generally get only 10-15%, Jim could’ve done very well for himself, indeed. He might also have elected to charge a retail price only slightly higher than $20 in order to make his book more appealing to prospective buyers while still netting a royalty higher than his mainstream peers.

Bear in mind that if Jim had hand-sold his books in person rather than having to ship them out to his buyers, he could’ve saved all that packaging material and postage expense. However, it’s pretty difficult to move 5-10,000 copies of a book at in-person events alone, and there’s always some expense involved in attending such events.

Royalty Calculations For Books Sold Through Retailers

If Jim had sold all 10,000 copies of his book through U.S. retailers who kept the standard 40% cut, his net royalty picture would look like this:

Bookseller cut = 40% of $20 = $8

Royalty = $20 – $12.50 – $8 = -$.50  (fifty cent loss per copy sold)

Not only would Jim earn no royalties at all, taking a loss of 50 cents on every one of 10,000 copies sold would’ve cost Jim $5,000.

Had Jim planned to sell through retailers to begin with, he could’ve taken the bookseller’s 40% cut into account when setting his retail price to ensure he’d still be earning a royalty of 10% or better on each copy sold. Again, since his is a hardcover book, a retail price of $25-$28 would still be quite reasonable to prospective buyers.

Bookseller cut = 40% of $28 = $11.20

Royalty = $28 – $12.50 – $11.20 = $4.30, a 15.36% royalty

Bookseller cut = 40% of $25 = $10

Royalty = $25 – $12.50 – $10 = $2.50, a 10% royalty

Notice that Jim’s per-copy production cost of $12.50 is fixed, it is what it is and he can’t change it. However, he gets to decide what to charge for the book, which determines his royalty.

Setting Your Retail Price: Per-Copy Production Costs Can Be A Dealbreaker

When setting your retail price, it’s very important to aim for a price that’s no higher, and ideally is slightly lower, than the retail price charged for a mainstream-produced book that’s comparable to yours in terms of format (hardcover vs. softcover, binding type, book dimensions) and length. Obviously, if your per-copy production costs are so high that you must charge more for your book than a comparable mainstream book just to clear even ten cents of profit per copy sold, your book will be a tough sell.

Consider the example of a typical, 6×9 trade paperback. Retail prices for this type of mainstream-produced book run anywhere from $11.99 – $16.99, so you should be aiming to price your book no higher than the middle of that range, at about $14.99. The bookseller’s 40% cut on a $14.99 book is $6, so it’s clear that if you’re paying $8.99 or more in per copy production costs, not only will you not earn any royalty at all per copy sold, you may actually be losing money. If you’re only paying $6.99 in per-copy production costs however, you’ll be earning $2 in royalties per copy sold—a royalty percentage of 13.34%.

If you’re self-publishing in order to generate income and your per-copy production costs are so high that you must charge $20 for a standard trade paperback, you must either find another service provider who can offer lower per-copy production costs, or abandon the project completely. There’s little reason for a consumer to pay $20 for your book when they can buy a comparable mainstream bestseller for $15 or less.

There’s an important caveat here, however. While per-copy production costs can be dealbreakers, so can poor production quality. It doesn’t make sense to go with the lowest per-copy production cost if the resulting book is of poor quality.

So when comparing service providers, in addition to looking at costs, be sure to do some online searching under the publisher’s name to see if you can find reviews of the service from other authors. If that fails, look in the provider’s online store to collect some author names, then Google those names. You’re sure to come up with at least a few who have author websites, and most of them will have contact information on their sites. Email the authors to ask about the quality of the books produced by their provider.

Calculating Your Break-Even Point

Okay, now that you know how to calculate your per-copy production cost and your royalty per copy sold, you can calculate your break-even point: how many books you must sell to earn back your upfront investment.

Recall that your upfront investment includes any fees paid to service providers excluding fees paid in exchange for actual copies of your book, plus the cost of any author copies you’ve purchased for reviewer or promotional giveaway purposes. However, that’s not the end of the upfront fees story. You must also include any expenses you’ve incurred for professional services or promotional activities specific to the book.

In Jim’s example, recall that he paid $8500 for professional photography and dust jacket design/printing services; that’s an upfront cost. If you’ve paid for professional editing, layout, design, book doctoring, or any other services in addition to what you’ve paid your author/print services provider, those are upfront costs, too. If you’ve paid for a website featuring you or your book, that also counts as an upfront cost. Promotional flyers, bookmarks, travel expenses related to book tours, signing events and speaking engagements: these are all upfront costs because they’re expenses you incur regardless of how many copies of your book ultimately sell. The list goes on and on, but you get the idea. Money you’re laying down for any product or service related to getting your book produced, distributed, promoted or sold, excluding money you’ve paid for copies of the book you intend to re-sell, all of that expense must be included in your upfront costs.

In Jim’s case his upfront costs were the $1000 in setup fees paid to his service provider, the $1000 in add-on fees he paid for his provider’s optional editing and layout service, and $8500 for outside photography and dustjacket design/printing services, for a total of $10,500. Going back to Jim’s example, if he had set his retail price at $28 and hand-sold all his copies in the U.S. only, he’d have earned $8.56 in royalties per copy sold. For the sake of simplicity, let’s assume Jim did not invest in any additional products or services to help promote his book. To figure how many copies of his book he must sell to break even, Jim just needs to figure how many times $8.56 goes into $10,500:

$10,500 / $8.56 = 1,227

So even with his very high royalty of 30.57%, Jim would have to sell over 1,200 copies of his book to earn back his upfront investment. That’s a lot of books, and while Jim is a consummate salesman (as evidenced by his presale figure of 5,000 books), most of us aren’t. But Jim’s book is a hardcover, and he opted to work with a subsidy publisher whose fees were very high. He also invested in some costly add-on services. Let’s look at a more typical example.

Consider a 6×9, 300pp trade paperback that’s being produced by Provider C from the previous comparison chart. Provider C charges a $50 setup fee, .45 per copy and .02 per page, for a total production cost per copy of $5.50. Let’s say the author also paid $500 for professional editing and cover design assistance, and purchased 20 author copies to send to reviewers and use for promotional giveaways at a cost of about $240. The author opted for a free author website and utilizes only free options for promotion. The author’s total upfront costs are:

$50 + $500 + $240 = $790

Let’s say the author priced the book at $14.99, and only sold the book through Amazon. Amazon’s reseller cut is 40% of $14.99, or $6. This results in an author royalty of:

$14.99 – ($5.50 + $6) = $3.49  (23.3% royalty)

The author’s break-even point is:

$790 / $3.49 = 226 copies sold

It should be very clear to you by now why it’s so important to track your expenses, and to be a smart shopper when it comes to choosing a service provider and deciding whether or not to pay for additional services.

Crunch the numbers! It can save you literally thousands of dollars, and turn what could be a financially disastrous undertaking into a profitable endeavor.

- April L. Hamilton

All site content copyright 2009 Vault University, all rights reserved. No part of this content may be reprinted, reproduced or excerpted without the express, written permission of the author.

April L. Hamilton is an author, blogger, Technorati BlogCritic, and a leading advocate and speaker for the indie author movement. She’s also the founder and Editor in Chief of Publetariat, the premier online news hub and community for indie authors and small imprints, as well as the Publetariat Vault. She’s a frequent conference speaker on subjects related to self-publishing, and judge for self-published book competitions. In her popular self-published reference book, The IndieAuthor Guide, to be released in an updated and revised edition from Writer’s Digest Books in November ‘10, she offers aspiring self-published authors a roadmap to success.

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